runexp

Implements two methods of estimating runs scored in a softball scenario: (1) theoretical expectation using discrete Markov chains and (2) empirical distribution using multinomial random simulation. Scores are based on player-specific input probabilities (out, single, double, triple, walk, and homerun). Optional inputs include probability of attempting a steal, probability of succeeding in an attempted steal, and an indicator of whether a player is "fast" (e.g. the player could stretch home). These probabilities may be calculated from common player statistics that are publicly available on team's webpages. Scores are evaluated based on a nine-player lineup and may be used to compare lineups, evaluate base scenarios, and compare the offensive potential of individual players. Manuscript forthcoming. See Bukiet & Harold (1997) doi:10.1287/opre.45.1.14 for implementation of discrete Markov chains.

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